Weekly

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Slow Improvement Has Continued

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long-leading indicators, then short-leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.

A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.

Where data is seasonally adjusted, generally it is scored positively if it is within the top 1/3 of that range, negative in the bottom 1/3, and neutral in between. Where it is not seasonally adjusted, and there are seasonal issues, waiting for the YoY change to change sign will lag the turning point. Thus I make use of a convention: data is scored neutral if it is less than 1/2 as positive/negative as at its 12-month extreme.

With long-leading indicators, which by definition turn at least 12 months before a turning point in the economy as a whole, there is an additional rule: data is automatically negative if, during an expansion, it has not made a new peak in the past year, with the sole exception that it is scored neutral if it is moving in the right direction and is close to making a new high.

For all series where a graph is available,

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Uniworld’s La Venezia takes design cues from namesake city: Travel Weekly

Uniworld Boutique River Cruise Collection has released the first pictures of its newest super ship, La Venezia.

Based in its namesake of Venice, the ship is a top-to-bottom redo of the former River Countess, which was struck by an MSC Cruises ship while in port last year.

The ship, however, had already been scheduled to be converted as part of Uniworld’s ongoing program to turn its entire fleet into so-called super ships, with larger cabins and public spaces.

The private dining room on La Venezia.

The private dining room on La Venezia.

The main structural changes were adding two grand suites,  a private dining room with a demonstration kitchen used for pairing dinners and cooking lessons and a seating banquet with shade umbrellas on the top deck that runs down the center.

Uniworld CEO Ellen Bettridge said the new design, led by Uniworld’s artistic directors Toni Tollman and Brian Brennan, was inspired by the work of celebrated Italian artist and textile designer Mariano Fortuny.

“We are absolutely thrilled to share details of the S.S. La Venezia, inspired by the incredible artistry and vision of Mariano Fortuny,” said Bettridge. “Over a century after its founding, Fortuny continues to prize originality, made only possible by artisans deeply committed to their craft. This speaks to the Uniworld philosophy. For our guests, this means a setting and style of service that is wholly immersive in the enduring fascination and magic that is Venice; and is born from more than 100 years of experience.”

The sitting area in a suite on La Venezia.

The sitting area in a suite on La Venezia.

Tollman said the ship was designed to “complement and enhance its carefully curated Venetian itineraries” with design elements that include, in addition to Fortuny fabrics, Murano glass.

La Venezia is one four new Uniworld ships that began or was set to begin sailing this year. The Mekong Jewel, a

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