Usually a punter-friendly race, the last shock winner, if you could call it that, of the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes (3.25 Newbury) was Lord Shanakill at 10/1 back in 2008.
I know things can and do change in racing, but I’ve had reasonable success in this contest when sticking near the short end of the market – and I must admit that I’m finding it hard to separate Rhythm Master and Bahrain Pride, which are trading at 11/4 and 4/1 respectively at the time of writing, behind likely favourite Fivethousandtoone (9/4).
Third in the Prix Morny at Deauville last time out, Rhythm Master sets the standard, and that win came on the back of a successful debut at Haydock.
Richard Fahy’s colt is almost certain to progress – but I’ve also been impressed with two wins from two starts from Bahrain Pride, the latest in a Listed contest at Ripon, and Simon & Ed Crisford’s colt narrowly gets the nod on potential.
It’s always hard to judge potential in two-year-olds which have only raced once or twice, but he took control of the race under James Doyle and went down in my notebook as one that should be able to step up in grade.
Earlier, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Equilateral around 5/2 in the Group Three Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (1.40) for Charlie Hills under Hollie Doyle.
This is a step down in class for the gelding, which was runner-up to stablemate Battaash in the King’s Stand Stakes, a nice piece of form, and while you could say he’s underperformed in three races since, he’s met trouble in-running so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Another one I’ll back at Newbury today is Mark Johnston’s Elarqam, which trades around 9/4 in
